The Race for the Senate Majority: Same Results, Smaller Battlefield

For all of the tumultuous polls and predictions, the race for the Senate Majority has stayed remarkably stable.

Days until Election: 29

Most major pollster are estimating that the Republican Party has a 60% chance of winning the Senate Majority for the first time in almost a decade. While how Republicans will win their majority is subject to some debate – though there does seem to be a clear path to victory for Republican strategists – the 60% chance of victory seems widely held (albeit with a major outlier in The Washington Post, which gives the Republicans a 78% chance).

What is remarkable though is that despite incredible sums of money, heated debates, and endless political ads, that 60% chance of victory has not changed much from before the summer began up to a month out from Election Day.

Marriage Equality – The Supreme Court’s Peculiar Permission to Proceed

Almost everyone predicted that the Supreme Court would definitively rule on the constitutionality of marriage equality this term. Now, without explanation, that is no longer the case.

Confused joy and mixed feelings abound as the Supreme Court quietly opened the door for marriage equality’s progression through the United States.

There was almost unanimous certainty that the Supreme Court would take up one of the five cases pending before it related to marriage equality this term, which begins today and will continue until the end of June. While the typical factors that would attract that Justices’ attentions to a case – differences in opinions at the appellate/Circuit Court of Appeals level being one of the primary ones – were not present, there was an unusually high magnitude of outside forces calling on the Court to produce a definitive ruling – including over 30 states and even the plaintiffs that won the right to marriage equality at the appellate level, and almost never before seen phenomena. With all of the focus on marriage equality, it seemed to be the case that would define the Roberts Court’s 10th term.

Now, without explanation, the Supreme Court has chosen to deny certiorari in all of the pending cases – the Court will not hear any of them, and the rulings at the Circuit Court level are not the definitive law of the land.

The Race for the Senate Majority: Democrats’ Momentum has Faltered

The race for the Senate was complicated by a few polls that went against the trend – and now the battlefield has been upended.

Days until Election: 43

This past week saw some big changes in the Senate battlefield, with the Democrats noticeably losing some of their edge. While the race is still a toss-up, the Democrats went from breaking even – and in some cases, edging to be the favorites to keep their majority – to having between a 40%-45% chance of doing so according to most pollsters. The biggest changes have been some states that leant Democrat sliding back into toss-up territory, and the safe Democrat states losing some of their edge. Colorado is the star of their week’s recap though, as it went from likely Democrat all the way to toss-up, and it seems to be shifting even further in Republican’s favor.

There are a number of reasons for why these shifts have occurred, the biggest being that there just have not been many reliable polls lately. A good chunk of polls that are being analyzed are partisan polls, which should always be taken with a grain of salt. For now, lets take a look at the layout of the battlefield to see just how things have changed in the past week.

One Step from the Start: Potential XXVIII Amendments in Congress – The Future of the Constitution, Part IV

What will become Amendment XXVIII is up for debate, but chances are that it might already exist in Congress.

In celebration of Constitution Day on September 17, 2014, we are dedicating the week to a new series, “The Future of the Constitution“. Designed to examine the Constitution and its Amendments, “The Future of the Constitution“ will examine the amendment process, analyze existing, failed, and prospective amendment, take a look at the constitutional quandary found in campaign finance reform in the post-Citizens United era, and end with a review of retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Steven’s newest book, “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution”.

In Part I of the series, we discussed how the Constitution can be amended and gave a brief overview of the Constitution’s history and contents.

In Part II, which is broken up into three sections, we outlined the Bill of Rights, the Eleventh through the Twentieth Amendments, and we will examine the 21st through the 27th Amendment shortly.

In Part III, we delved into the six prospective amendments that were adopted by Congress, but fell short of the ratification threshold in the states.

Now, in Part IV, we will examine some of the many potential amendments that still linger in Congress, but have caught the public’s attention and may start or have come close to starting the process of being adopted and ratified.

On the Brink of Success: The Six Amendments that Fell Short – The Future of the Constitution, Part III

There have been 33 amendments to the Constitution that were adopted by Congress – but only 27 were ratified. What happened to the other six?

Part III of “The Future of the Constitution” series.

In celebration of Constitution Day on September 17, 2014, we are dedicating the week to a new series, “The Future of the Constitution“. Designed to examine the Constitution and its Amendments, “The Future of the Constitution“ will examine the amendment process, analyze existing, failed, and prospective amendment, take a look at the constitutional quandary found in campaign finance reform in the post-Citizens United era, and end with a review of retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Steven’s newest book, “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution”.

In Part I of the series, we discussed how the Constitution can be amended and gave a brief overview of the Constitution’s history and contents.

In Part II, which is broken up into three sections, we outlined the Bill of Rights, the Eleventh through the Twentieth Amendments, and we will examine the 21st through the 27th Amendment shortly.

in Part III, we will see that not all amendments end their arduous journey successfully.

Once an amendment crosses the high Congressional threshold, they seem destined for ratification. Historical odds are on their side; 27 of the 33 Congressionally approved amendments were eventually ratified. Often, amendments are propelled by national movements, backlash from unpopular actions or Supreme Court cases, or some other impetus that becomes a cause célèbre in the public’s eye.

For six prospective amendments though, that final push towards ratification faltered. From the ignominious collapse of the Corwin Amendment to the damning, drawn-out defeat of the Equal Rights Amendment, these are the six amendments that could have changed the Constitution as we know it.

Amendments XI – XX – The Future of the Constitution, Part II.2

The United States Constitution has been updated eighteen times, for a total of twenty-seven amendments. No analysis of the Constitution’s future would be complete without a summary of its current amendments.

Part II of “The Future of the Constitution” series.

In celebration of Constitution Day on September 17, 2014, we are dedicating the week to a new series, “The Future of the Constitution“. Designed to examine the Constitution and its Amendments, “The Future of the Constitution“ will examine the amendment process, analyze existing, failed, and prospective amendment, take a look at the constitutional quandary found in campaign finance reform in the post-Citizens United era, and end with a review of retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Steven’s newest book, “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution”.

In Part I of the series, we discussed how the Constitution can be amended and gave a brief overview of the Constitution’s history and contents.

In the first section of Part II, we recounted the first ten amendments, also known as the Bill of Rights. This section, the second section, will outline amendments XI – XX. The third and final section will summarize amendments XXI – XXVII.

Happy Constitution Day!

Take a moment today to celebrate the supreme law of the United States, the Constitution!

Today is the annual celebration recognizing the ratification of the Constitution! Brush up on your knowledge of the Constitution, register to vote if you haven’t already, and take the time to celebrate the uniquely important place in history America’s Constitution holds!

~ John Isidore

The Bill of Rights – The Future of the Constitution, Part II.1

The United States Constitution has been updated eighteen times, for a total of twenty-seven amendments. No analysis of the Constitution’s future would be complete without a summary of its current amendments.

Part II of “The Future of the Constitution” series.

In celebration of Constitution Day on September 17, 2014, we are dedicating the week to a new series, “The Future of the Constitution“. Designed to examine the Constitution and its Amendments, “The Future of the Constitution“ will examine the amendment process, analyze existing, failed, and prospective amendment, take a look at the constitutional quandary found in campaign finance reform in the post-Citizens United era, and end with a review of retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Steven’s newest book, “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution”.

In Part I of the series, we discussed how the Constitution can be amended and gave a brief overview of the Constitution’s history and contents.

In the first section of Part II below, we will expand upon the Constitution’s amendments by giving a summary of each, analyze why the amendments were proposed and ratified, and what the amendments mean in the modern-day. In this section, we will discuss the first ten amendments, or the Bill of Rights. The second and third sections will outline amendments XI – XX and XXI – XXVII respectively.

The Race for the Senate Majority: A Narrowed Contest

The Senate battlefield has shifted in the past week – and the race for the majority is now closer than ever.

Days until Election: 50

Since the last update of the “Race for the Senate Majority” series, the battle for control of the Senate has grown more competitive, and more favorable for the Democrats. There are no more primaries left and, barring another shocking event like Kansas, the competitors in each race are set in stone. With only a few short days left before Congress closes its final session before Election Day, there may be some significant shifts in the electoral mathematics. For now though, there are some observable trends occurring – ones that give Democrats hope, and put Republicans feet to the fire.

Amendment XXVIII? The Amendment Process – The Future of the Constitution, Part I

S.J. Res. 19 brought a simmering debate back into the spotlight for a brief moment: what will be the next amendment to the Constitution?

Part I of “The Future of the Constitution” series.

In celebration of Constitution Day on September 17, 2014, we are dedicating the week to a new series, “The Future of the Constitution“. Designed to examine the Constitution and its Amendments, “The Future of the Constitution“ will examine the amendment process, analyze existing, failed, and prospective amendment, take a look at the constitutional quandary found in campaign finance reform in the post-Citizens United era, and end with a review of retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Steven’s newest book, “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution”.

S.J. Res. 19 – otherwise known as the Udall Amendment – awoke public consciousness to the notion of amending the U.S. Constitution for the 28th time. S.J. Res. 19 concerned the presence of money in politics, and sought to resolve the debate on campaign finance reform’s constitutionality in the wake of the landmark Supreme Court case, Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.

The Campaign Finance Amendment’s death by failed cloture vote – and the future of constitutional campaign finance reform – will be analyzed in a different post. Part I, which begins below, will examine the process by which the Constitution can be amended.