The Race for the Senate Majority: Same Results, Smaller Battlefield

For all of the tumultuous polls and predictions, the race for the Senate Majority has stayed remarkably stable.

Days until Election: 29

Most major pollster are estimating that the Republican Party has a 60% chance of winning the Senate Majority for the first time in almost a decade. While how Republicans will win their majority is subject to some debate – though there does seem to be a clear path to victory for Republican strategists – the 60% chance of victory seems widely held (albeit with a major outlier in The Washington Post, which gives the Republicans a 78% chance).

What is remarkable though is that despite incredible sums of money, heated debates, and endless political ads, that 60% chance of victory has not changed much from before the summer began up to a month out from Election Day.

The Race for the Senate Majority: Democrats’ Momentum has Faltered

The race for the Senate was complicated by a few polls that went against the trend – and now the battlefield has been upended.

Days until Election: 43

This past week saw some big changes in the Senate battlefield, with the Democrats noticeably losing some of their edge. While the race is still a toss-up, the Democrats went from breaking even – and in some cases, edging to be the favorites to keep their majority – to having between a 40%-45% chance of doing so according to most pollsters. The biggest changes have been some states that leant Democrat sliding back into toss-up territory, and the safe Democrat states losing some of their edge. Colorado is the star of their week’s recap though, as it went from likely Democrat all the way to toss-up, and it seems to be shifting even further in Republican’s favor.

There are a number of reasons for why these shifts have occurred, the biggest being that there just have not been many reliable polls lately. A good chunk of polls that are being analyzed are partisan polls, which should always be taken with a grain of salt. For now, lets take a look at the layout of the battlefield to see just how things have changed in the past week.

One Step from the Start: Potential XXVIII Amendments in Congress – The Future of the Constitution, Part IV

What will become Amendment XXVIII is up for debate, but chances are that it might already exist in Congress.

In celebration of Constitution Day on September 17, 2014, we are dedicating the week to a new series, “The Future of the Constitution“. Designed to examine the Constitution and its Amendments, “The Future of the Constitution“ will examine the amendment process, analyze existing, failed, and prospective amendment, take a look at the constitutional quandary found in campaign finance reform in the post-Citizens United era, and end with a review of retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Steven’s newest book, “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution”.

In Part I of the series, we discussed how the Constitution can be amended and gave a brief overview of the Constitution’s history and contents.

In Part II, which is broken up into three sections, we outlined the Bill of Rights, the Eleventh through the Twentieth Amendments, and we will examine the 21st through the 27th Amendment shortly.

In Part III, we delved into the six prospective amendments that were adopted by Congress, but fell short of the ratification threshold in the states.

Now, in Part IV, we will examine some of the many potential amendments that still linger in Congress, but have caught the public’s attention and may start or have come close to starting the process of being adopted and ratified.

Happy Constitution Day!

Take a moment today to celebrate the supreme law of the United States, the Constitution!

Today is the annual celebration recognizing the ratification of the Constitution! Brush up on your knowledge of the Constitution, register to vote if you haven’t already, and take the time to celebrate the uniquely important place in history America’s Constitution holds!

~ John Isidore

The Race for the Senate Majority: A Narrowed Contest

The Senate battlefield has shifted in the past week – and the race for the majority is now closer than ever.

Days until Election: 50

Since the last update of the “Race for the Senate Majority” series, the battle for control of the Senate has grown more competitive, and more favorable for the Democrats. There are no more primaries left and, barring another shocking event like Kansas, the competitors in each race are set in stone. With only a few short days left before Congress closes its final session before Election Day, there may be some significant shifts in the electoral mathematics. For now though, there are some observable trends occurring – ones that give Democrats hope, and put Republicans feet to the fire.

Senate Election Shift: North Carolina Begins Breaking for Democrats

The Tar Heel state has decided to shift towards one party – and Democrats should find hope in its momentum.

Not long after I posted my first update on the Senate races, a shift has occurred in one of the most closely watched states. North Carolina, which has been stubbornly locked in a tight race between incumbent Democrat Senator Kay Hagan and her challenger, State Speaker of the House Thom Tillis, has finally begun breaking away – in favor of Senator Hagan.

The latest Rasmussen Report survey places Senator Hagan in the lead, 45% vs. 39% for Tillis. This is a 10% shift from its last released survey, where Tillis led 45% vs. 40%.

The Race for the Senate Majority: Toss-Up States are Slowly Shifting

Who will control the Senate in the 114th Congress is one of the most hotly debated questions in American politics. As November 4th approaches, the battlefield is slowly becoming clearer.

Every two years, approximately one-third of the United States Senate is up for election. This constantly rotating series of elections keeps the Senate responsive to American citizens, and provides an opportunity for democratic self-government to shape America’s upper chamber.

In 2014, the Senate finds itself on the pinnacle of transformation. The Democrats hold 55 seats (53 Democrats, and two Independents that currently caucus with them), a tenuous lead that the party has held onto since the lost their filibuster-proof majority in 2010. The challenge for Republicans come November is to claim at least six of those seats – and the playing field is set in their favor.

Massachusetts Rep. Tierney’s Primary Defeat is One More Loss of Seniority for the MA Congressional Delegation

Over the past five years, Massachusetts Congressional seniority has been in free-fall, going from one of the most senior delegations to one of the least. Representative John Tierney’s primary loss is the latest iteration of that evolution.

Between 2009 and 2014, Massachusetts’ contribution to the federal government has undergone a rapid and unchangeable reconfiguration. Due to deaths,  joining the presidential Cabinet, and regular old losing elections, the composition of the Massachusetts Congressional Delegation has transformed – into one much less senior. Representative John Tierney’s (D-MA06) not-so-shocking primary loss to newcomer Seth Moulton now typifies what has become a new normal in Massachusetts.

Book Review – “Off the Sidelines: Raise Your Voice, Change the World” by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

An engaging, energetic, emotional call to action for all women to get in the game and help shape the world.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand burst into national politics when she was chosen to fill the New York Senate seat Hillary Clinton left to become Secretary of State in 2009. A surprise pick, Senator Gillibrand – then a young, relatively new representative for New York’s northern 20th District – was faced with immense expectations, negative assumptions about her character, and challenges aplenty. Since then, she has more than proven that she can rise to the occasion. Winning both a special and full election within four years – all well breaking state records for percentage of votes received – Senator Gillibrand has adopted a number of campaigns that she says will “give voices to the voiceless”.

Her new book, “Off the Sidelines: Raise Your Voice, Change the World”, documents her evolution from young girl, to corporate lawyer, all the way to New York’s junior Senator. Though she claims her life started as ordinarily as possible, she recognizes that her call to public service was in her soul long before she first considered running for Congress. Her childhood dreams of being a Senator were encouraged by her family, especially her great-grandmother and grandmother, who were deeply embedded in Albany politics, even in the early 1900’s.

With strong female role models – her family, her squash coach who taught her a hard lesson in both humility and perseverance, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – it is no wonder that Senator Gillibrand frames her book as a call to arms for women engagement in the civil process. From the first page in her autobiography, she frames her ultimate goal: by recounting her story, she attempts to dispel that numerous, subtle pressures that stifle female progress and embrace a resurgence in the feminist movement.