The race for the Senate was complicated by a few polls that went against the trend – and now the battlefield has been upended.
Days until Election: 43
This past week saw some big changes in the Senate battlefield, with the Democrats noticeably losing some of their edge. While the race is still a toss-up, the Democrats went from breaking even – and in some cases, edging to be the favorites to keep their majority – to having between a 40%-45% chance of doing so according to most pollsters. The biggest changes have been some states that leant Democrat sliding back into toss-up territory, and the safe Democrat states losing some of their edge. Colorado is the star of their week’s recap though, as it went from likely Democrat all the way to toss-up, and it seems to be shifting even further in Republican’s favor.
There are a number of reasons for why these shifts have occurred, the biggest being that there just have not been many reliable polls lately. A good chunk of polls that are being analyzed are partisan polls, which should always be taken with a grain of salt. For now, lets take a look at the layout of the battlefield to see just how things have changed in the past week.
The Breakdown
Of the 11 states originally defined as toss-ups, the biggest changes have been in Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Kansas this past week. Colorado has tumbled from being likely Democrat to being a toss-up, and Iowa is also sliding towards the GOP. Michigan has also lost its coveted ‘safe’ status, though it still trends strongly Democrat. Finally, Democrat Chad Taylor successfully won his bid to be removed from the election ballot, increasing Independent Greg Orman’s chances of being elected significantly.
As always, here are the races from Most Democratic Leaning to Most Republican Leaning:
- Michigan – Michigan’s race has grown slightly more competitive, but Democratic nominee Gary Peters is still heavily favored to be victorious in November. Still, the tightened race is enough for most pollsters to no longer label this race as ‘safe’. Democrats should be troubled that they no longer have any state that can confidently be said to be ‘safe’ at this point in the race. The race is now Likely Democrat.
- New Hampshire – The race between Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Republican former Senator Scott Brown has stopped tightening in recent days, with Senator Shaheen hovering at around an 80% chance of retaining her seat. This is a comfortable place to be, but it pales in comparison to the days not long since passed when the race seemed like a certain victory for her. This race is Likely Democrat.
- North Carolina – The darling of Senate forecasters, North Carolina is proving to be less disputed than originally thought. While the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan and Republican State Speaker of the House Thom Tillis is still close statistically, Senator Hagan has consistently polled ahead by a small margin in every recent reputable poll. North Carolina is not lacking in good data like some states – Alaska is a primary example – where polls are hard to perform, and a single poll can shift the tide rapidly. Senator Hagan’s consistent lead bolsters her chances of retaining her seat, and makes her race Likely Democrat.
- Kansas – Democrat Chad Taylor’s successful removal of his name from the election ballot has done wonders for Independent candidate Greg Orman’s campaign. In deep red Kansas, he finds himself polling ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts. While the fundamentals of the state still heavily favor Senator Roberts, deep resentment of Republican Governor Sam Brownback might propel Orman to victory – where the next question will be, which party will he caucus with? Future questions aside, this race is now a Toss-Up.
- Iowa – Iowa has claimed North Carolina’s title as most competitive state, and perhaps its moniker of the state that will determine the majority. The race has stubbornly rejected trending towards one part of the other, save for a few short days where it started breaking for Democrats. Now, the race is tied between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst. Whatever breaks the race in favor of one party – another gaffe from Braley, or Ernst losing steam as a first-time candidate – is unpredictable, making this race a true Toss-Up.
- Colorado – No one is quite sure what happened in Colorado, but Democratic Senator Mark Udall’s fortunes plummeted in recent days due to a string of polls that show his competitor, Republican Cory Gardner, polling ahead of him. He has tumbled from a close to 80% chance of victory, to about breaking even – the most recent odds are even now on his challenger! This race has jolted back into the spotlight, and is one of the primary reasons that race has shifted back into slightly favoring Republicans. The race is now a Toss-Up.
- Alaska – Alaska maintains its reputation for poor polling data. The low number of polls, combined with the majority of them being partisan polls, means that the race can shift on a dime. For example, yesterday the New York Times’ The Upshot had incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Begich a 62% chance of victory; today, The Upshot gives him a 41% chance of retaining his seat. This race is a Toss-Up, and will most likely continue to be so right up until Election Day.
- Louisiana – Nothing much has changed in Louisiana the past week, besides incumbent Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu making newslines for helping a constituent do a keg stand. While the race is quiet now, gird yourself for a truly intense run-off in November if this becomes the race that will determine the Senate majority. This race is Lean Republican.
- Arkansas – Incumbent Senator Mark Pyror continues to struggle against Republican challenger Tom Cotton. This race seems like it has settled, save for some interesting results from 538 that imply that Cotton’s lead is being chipped away at. Still, the race remains Likely Republican.
- Georgia – Despite some scuffling over President George H.W. Bush’s Points of Light Foundation, Democratic challenger Michelle Nunn is still not making headway against Republican David Perdue. While Nunn continues to be a good competitor and fundraiser, this race is increasingly seeming like a Republican lock and has been taken off multiple polling lists as a result. This race is Safe Republican.
- Kentucky – If Georgia looks to be safe Republican, then Kentucky is. Nothing Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes seems to be doing is chipping away at Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s lead. While the race remains close statistically, it has not shifted away from Senator McConnell in weeks. The race is affirmatively Safe Republican.
The Countdown
Colorado is stealing the show with Senator Mark Udall’s fall from grace. Whether his tumble continues remains to be seen, but it would not be surprising for the race to revert back in his favor. Polls often go through cycles, and a set of them may have caught onto a temporary wave of support for Republican Cory Gardener. If the wave passes, then the race will begin trending back to where it once was. Still, for a strategy that relied on Colorado being a safe bet, Democrats should be worried that their window to maintain the Senate majority might be inching closed.
In general, this has not been a good week for Democrats. While strong candidates are keeping the hope for a Democratic Senate alive, their glimpse at being favored to maintain their majority vanished almost as soon as it appeared. Whether or not they can inch back to their goal of breaking ahead remains to be seen.
Keep an eye on Colorado, to see whether it continues to slide towards Republicans or readjusts back towards Democrats. Also pay attention to Kansas, where there may be a surprising shift in party allegiance towards Democrats in what is currently a deep red state. As always, don’t let Iowa out of sight, and it can’t hurt to see in Senator Hagan can maintain her lead another week in North Carolina; if she can, then it will be all the more likely that she will come out ahead in November.
Exciting times! Do not forget to register to vote, everyone! I just moved a short while ago, and I finally made the trek down to the DMV to make sure I could vote in November. Civic participation goes hand in hand with political engagement, so do not let this election pass by without your vote!
The chances of the Senate Majority Control switching parties is a Toss-Up.
~ John Isidore
Advocate for Advocacy 